12/02/2026
SEASONAL FORECAST INTERPRETATION FOR 2026 BY NIMET
1️⃣ Onset of Rain: March 25 – April 9
What this means:
The onset of rain is not a single fixed day. It means that the effective planting rain is expected to begin any day between March 25 and April 9, 2026.
The actual onset could occur on March 25, March 30, April 2, April 9, or any day within that window.
Onset is determined by sustained rainfall sufficient for planting, not just one isolated rainfall event.
Early isolated rains before March 25 may not be stable enough for planting.
Implication:
Farmers should:
Begin land preparation before March 25.
Wait for 2–3 consecutive effective rains before planting sensitive crops.
Avoid rushing to plant after the very first rainfall unless it is well established.
2️⃣ Cessation of Rain: December 1 – December 9
Meaning:
The cessation of rainfall (end of the rainy season) will occur any day between December 1 and December 9, 2026.
Rain may stop permanently on December 1, December 5, or December 9.
After cessation, significant rainfall is not expected.
Implication:
Late-season crops should mature before early December.
Harvest planning should be completed before cessation.
Drying and storage plans should begin immediately after rains reduce.
3️⃣ Length of Growing Season (LGS): 210 Days
The growing season is the number of days between effective onset and cessation.
A 210-day growing season is favourable for medium to long-duration crops.
Supports crops like:
Maize (early and medium varieties)
Cassava
Yam
Vegetables
Rice (depending on ecology)
Implication:
Farmers can plan:
Main cropping cycle
Possible relay cropping
Early + late planting systems
4️⃣ Predicted Annual Rainfall: 1150 mm
This suggests:
Moderately good rainfall amount.
Suitable for rainfed agriculture.
Not excessively wet (reduced flood risk compared to very high rainfall years).
Still requires soil moisture management.
5️⃣ June – August Dry Spell: Mild to Moderate
This means:
A temporary reduction in rainfall intensity between June and August.
Crops may experience moisture stress, but not extreme drought.
6️⃣ Little Dry Spell (Break Period): July 26 – July 30
This little dry spell will commence any day between July 26 and July 30.
It could start on July 26, 27, 28, 29, or 30.
Rainfall will reduce temporarily during this short period.
Duration is expected to be brief.
This is a normal seasonal break, not crop failure.
🌱 ADVISORY FOR CROP FARMERS
1. Planting Strategy
Prepare land before March 25.
Plant after confirmed effective onset.
Use early-maturing or drought-tolerant varieties.
Stagger planting dates to reduce risk.
2. During June–August Dry Spell
Apply mulching to conserve soil moisture.
Practice minimum tillage.
Use cover crops.
Conduct timely weeding to reduce moisture competition.
3. Around Little Dry Spell (Late July)
Avoid fertilizer application immediately before the break.
If possible, irrigate high-value crops.
Monitor maize at tasseling stage (very sensitive to stress).
4. Late Season Planning
Ensure crops mature before December 1–9.
Plan harvesting logistics early.
🐄 ADVISORY FOR LIVESTOCK FARMERS
Water & Heat Management
Ensure consistent water supply during June–August.
Provide shade structures.
Reduce animal movement during peak heat hours.
Feed Strategy
Conserve pasture during early rainy season.
Produce hay or silage before dry spell.
Store feed reserves before December.
Health
Monitor for heat stress signs.
Deworm during early rainy season.
Maintain hygiene during wet months to prevent disease outbreak.
🐝 ADVISORY FOR BEEKEEPERS
During Rainy Season
Ensure hive ventilation.
Prevent waterlogging around apiaries.
Inspect colonies regularly.
During Little Dry Spell
Provide water sources near hives.
Monitor nectar flow reduction.
Avoid excessive hive disturbance.
Honey Production Planning
Major honey flow likely before and after peak rains.
Plan harvest before cessation in early December.
