29/10/2022
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16 ☔
Severe Tropical Storm (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “PAENG” HAS CROSSED THE BONDOC PENINSULA IN SOUTHERN QUEZON
Location of Center (7:00 AM): The center of Severe Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet and Baler Doppler Weather Radars over the coastal waters of Catanauan, Quezon (13.6°N, 122.3°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon
Camarines Norte, the western portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Cabusao, Pasacao, Libmanan, Pamplona), Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, and Rizal
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
Catanduanes, Albay, the western portion of Sorsogon (Pilar, Castilla, Donsol), the western portion of Masbate (Aroroy, Baleno, Mandaon) including Burias Island, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Tarlac, Zambales, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, the rest of Camarines Sur, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Sorsogon, the rest of Masbate including Ticao Island, and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli, Roxas, San Vicente) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
Visayas
Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and Iloilo
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Through this morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Metro Manila, Aurora, Bulacan, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar, the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan Valley, and the rest of CALABARZON and Palawan. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and Visayas.
• This morning through evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, and Camarines Provinces. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region and the rest of Visayas, Central Luzon, and Bicol Region.
• Tonight through tomorrow morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, and Batangas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region, Camarines Provinces, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands.
• Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
• Winds of at most storm-force strength may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds reaching reach gale-force strength are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Areas under Wind Signal No.1 may experience strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) throughout the passage of the tropical cyclone.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause inundation or flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of western Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, southern Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Albay. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #5 issued at 8:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Severe Tropical Storm PAENG, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #12 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Severe Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to track westward in the short term before moving west northwestward through Sunday across Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of PAENG will pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Marinduque this morning before traversing the CALABARZON-Metro Manila-Bataan Peninsula area for the remainder of the day through tomorrow early morning. However, southward shift in the forecast track of PAENG is possible in the succeeding bulletins.
• Frictional effects associated with interaction with the Luzon landmass may result in weakening into a tropical storm within 24 hours, possibly earlier. However, PAENG may re-intensify into a severe tropical storm once it reaches the West Philippine Sea.
Recent landfalls: Buenavista, Quezon (6:00 AM today)
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
https://bit.ly/3RQj55J
