25/05/2026
Here's something we've been following in our community that tells you almost everything about how the global food system works - and who it works for.
In late 2024, cocoa hit a record $12,900 per metric ton. Arabica coffee prices were up over 100% in a year. The headlines talked about the crisis for chocolate makers, the rising price of your morning cup, the pressure on buyers everywhere.
What the headlines said less about: the smallholder farmers who grew it. 🧑🌾
Because here's what we keep hearing - and what the data confirms.
When commodity prices spike, the gains don't reliably reach the farmers at the bottom of the chain. Climate shocks, disease, flooding, drought - these are hitting the farms hardest, increasing labour and costs at exactly the moment that global prices are rising.
The farmer is working harder, spending more, and still not capturing the windfall that traders and speculators see on the exchange floor. 😠
And then the price fell. By mid-2025, cocoa had dropped 43% from its peak. The same farmers who didn't benefit much from the spike now face lower prices on a crop that cost more to produce.
This is what it looks like when a farmer has no connection to the market that sets their price. The number goes up and down thousands of miles away. They find out when the buyer tells them.
Does this pattern look familiar from where you farm or buy? We'd love to hear from our community. 👇