22/07/2026
WHEN THE CHIPS ARE DOWN
There is an old saying that "when the chips are down," people discover what they are truly made of. Today, that expression carries a strikingly literal meaning for everyone in Nigeria's cassava value chain. The chips are indeed down—not just as an expression describing difficult times, but also in the prices of fresh cassava tubers and several other cassava products. For many farmers and processors, 2025 and this 2026 have tested their resilience and the ability to adapt.
In 2024, the conversation was completely different. Fresh cassava commanded unprecedented prices. Farmers were just smiling to the bank and processors struggled to secure enough raw materials. Expansion became the order of the day. More hectares were cultivated, as processors also increased capacity.
By the beginning of 2025 when many of the user companies of cassava derivatives switched to patronizing imported alternatives, and processors of cassava starch and HQCF lost chunk of their markets, demand for cassava tubers dropped beyond usual and price also dropped far below 50% of the previous year. Farmers become discouraged and many processors struggle to operate at 30% of their installed capacity. Many even closed completely.
Perhaps what we are witnessing is not simply a fall in prices but a reminder of a lesson that the industry has not fully embraced the needed reality; that production and market development must grow together. Also the need for strengthen operational efficiency at both production and processing levels. It is not enough for farmers to only pursue increase in size of farmland cultivated, quantity yield per hectare is a major determining factor for the profitability of the investment. Same way that it is important for processors to pursue all possible means of operational cost reduction – cost of energy is a major productivity hindering factor, hence the need to investment alternative energy sources more seriously.
Equally, it is good to note that production without corresponding market expansion inevitably leads to pressure on prices. A value chain cannot rely on occasional shortages to remain profitable. Sustainable growth comes from creating consistent demand, expanding industrial applications, developing export markets and building stronger linkages across the value chain. Therefore, the current situation should not be viewed as a reason for despair but as an opportunity for reflection. Farmers may need to place greater emphasis on productivity rather than simply increasing cultivated area, while strengthening relationships with reliable off-takers before planting. Processors may need to focus even more on operational efficiency and market expansion.
Government also has a critical role to play. The enormous investments already made by private sector players deserve an enabling policy environment that encourages local processing, supports industrial utilization of cassava derivatives, facilitates exports and protects strategic domestic industries from unfair competition. Infrastructure, affordable finance, research, and predictable policies remain essential ingredients for building a globally competitive cassava economy.
One thing this downturn has reminded us is that price alone is not the true measure of the health of an industry. Extremely high prices can cripple processors just as extremely low prices can discourage farmers. What the cassava sector truly needs is a balanced market where every participant earns a fair return and where businesses can plan with confidence rather than reacting to cycles of boom and bust.
Thankfully, there are many reasons to remain optimistic. The conversation around HQCF inclusion is becoming stronger. When the policy is passed as we are hoping demand will increase which will also translate to more volume offtake at the farmers’ end. Efforts being made to create new markets for different cassava products through research and development will also translate to more offtake at both processors and farmers levels.
Every industry experience seasons of abundance and seasons of adjustment. What determines its future is not the difficulty of the moment but how stakeholders respond to it. The Nigerian cassava industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the last two years. There is every reason to believe that this period will also pass.
When the chips are down, we must resist the temptation to lose sight of the bigger picture. Nigeria remains the world's largest producer of cassava, and the opportunities before us are still enormous. If we continue to build markets with the more determination, increase our operations efficiency, further strengthen collaboration across the value chain and sustain the ongoing advocacy for supportive policies, the years ahead could mark the beginning of a more stable, competitive and globally relevant cassava economy.
The chips may be down today, but the future of Nigeria's cassava sector is certainly not.
Kazeem Lamidi
Business Development Officer - INCSAN